TOPCon’s Environmental Paradox: Lower Silver Use Can Cut Metal Consumption by 41%, But the Full LCA Story Is More Complicated
Teburin Abubuwan Ciki
Gabatarwa: Me yasa Wannan Nazari Yake da Muhimmanci Yanzu
Wannan labarin ya dogara ne akan takardar Nature Communications da aka buga a kan layi a watan Fabrairu 2026, “Maximising environmental savings from silicon photovoltaics manufacturing to 2035” by Bethany L. Willis et al. Binciken yana ba da ɗayan cikakkun kwatancen rayuwa tsakanin PERC da TOPCon photovoltaic manufacturing, yana fadada bincike daga bayanan samarwa na yau zuwa 2035 fasaha da yanayin grid.
A ƙarshen 2023, ƙarfin hasken rana na PV da aka shigar a duniya ya riga ya wuce 1 TWp. A cikin yanayin rage carbon na dogon lokaci, wannan lambar na iya kaiwa kusan 80 TWp by 2050. Wannan ci gaban yana da mahimmanci ga canjin makamashi, amma kuma yana haifar da nauyin masana'antu wanda galibi ba a ƙididdige shi ba. Ƙididdigar da ta gabata ta nuna cewa masana'antar PV da kanta na iya cinyewa har zuwa 11% na ragowar kasafin carbon na duniya a ƙarƙashin hanyar 1.5 °C.
Lokaci yana da mahimmanci saboda masana'antar silicon crystalline ta yau da kullun tana motsawa da sauri daga PERC zuwa TOPCon. TOPCon yana ba da inganci mafi girma, amma tsarin tantanin sa, dopants, layukan kariya, da metallization sun bambanta sosai da PERC. Babban tambaya mai sauƙi ne amma mai wahala: shin inganci mafi girma yana rage tasirin muhalli, ko kuma ƙarin kayan aiki da rikitarwar tsari suna ɓata ribar?
Binciken yana amfani da kima na rayuwa daga tushe zuwa ƙofa, wanda ya ƙunshi sarkar daga hakar ma'adinin quartz zuwa wafer, tantanin, masana'anta na module, da jigilar kaya zuwa Tsakiyar Turai. Ƙungiyar aiki ita ce 1 Wp, kuma kimar tasirin ta bi hanyar EU EF v3.1 a cikin nau'ikan 16. Zato na ci gaban fasaha ya dogara ne akan ITRPV 2024 roadmap, yayin da rage carbon na wutar lantarki ke bin tsarin EIA 2023 low zero-carbon technology cost scenario. Yankunan masana'anta sun haɗa da China, Indiya, Amurka, da Turai, tare da amfani da bincike na Monte Carlo don gwada rashin tabbas.
PERC vs TOPCon: Mafi Kyau a cikin Rukunan 15, Mafi Muni a cikin Daya
A ƙarƙashin yanayin tushe na 2023 na masana'anta na China da isar da kaya zuwa Tsakiyar Turai, TOPCon yana aiki mafi kyau fiye da PERC a cikin 15 daga cikin nau'ikan tasirin muhalli 16 akan tushen kowace Wp. Iyakar nau'in da TOPCon ta fi muni a kai shine amfani da albarkatun karafa da ma'adanai.
| Nau'in Tasiri | TOPCon vs PERC kowace Wp |
|---|---|
| Canjin yanayi | -6.5% |
| Barbashi | Ƙasa |
| Eutrophication na ruwa mai dadi | Ƙasa |
| Samuwar ozone photochemical | Ƙasa |
| Ragewar albarkatun burbushin halittu | Ƙasa |
| Ragewar albarkatun karafa da ma'adanai | +15.2% |
Hoto.1 | Kwatancen daidaitacce na manyan nau'ikan tasiri shida tsakanin PERC da TOPCon, tare da bambance-bambancen kashi.
Karawar +15.2% a tasirin albarkatun karafa yana da alaka da azurfa. A cikin sel PERC, metallization na gefen baya yana amfani da hadin azurfa da aluminum. A cikin sel TOPCon, duka metallization na gaba da baya sun dogara sosai kan manna azurfa. Sakamakon haka, ko da yake TOPCon tana samar da wutar lantarki da yawa a kowane yanki, bukatar azurfa ta kowace Wp ta kasance damuwa mai mahimmanci ga muhalli.
Wannan shine matakin farko na sabani: TOPCon ya fi tsabta a yawancin nau'ikan zagayowar rayuwa, amma sawun ƙarfe na iya zama mafi muni saboda yawan amfani da azurfa.
Binciken Wuri Mai Zafi: Wutar Lantarki Ta Fi Karfin Carbon, Azurfa Ta Fi Karfin Amfani da Karfe
Binciken ya raba kera samfurin TOPCon zuwa manyan matakai hudu: samar da wafer, samar da cell, hada module, da jigilar kaya zuwa Tsakiyar Turai. Sakamakon ya nuna cewa nau'ikan muhalli daban-daban suna sarrafa su ta hanyar wurare masu zafi daban-daban.
Samar da wafer shine babban wurin zafi na carbon
Matakin wafer ya mamaye nau'ikan tasiri 12 cikin 16. A cikin manyan nau'ikan shida da takardar ta haskaka, amfani da wutar lantarki da ke da alaka da wafer yana ba da gudummawa sosai ga:
| Rukuni | Kaso daga Amfani da Wutar Lantarki na Wafer |
|---|---|
| Ragewar albarkatun burbushin halittu | 88.2% |
| Canjin yanayi | 89.9% |
| Barbashi | 93.5% |
Fiye da kashi 85% na bukatar wutar lantarki na wafer ya fito daga rage polysilicon da jan hankalin crystal na Czochralski. A zahiri, sawun carbon na module na hasken rana yana da karfi ta hanyar hadewar wutar lantarki da ake amfani da shi a sama a samar da polysilicon da ingot.
Samar da cell shine wurin zafi na amfani da karfe
Matakin tantanin halitta shine kawai matakin da amfani da albarkatun ƙarfe ya zama babba. Yin amfani da azurfa a cikin lantarki yana da 53.0% na jimlar amfani da ƙarfe a cikin panel da 98.3% na amfani da ƙarfe a cikin matakin tantanin halitta. Sauran wuraren da suka fi zafi a matakin tantanin halitta sun haɗa da silane don ajiyar poly-Si da PECVD, wutar lantarki don annealing, da hayakin NMVOC daga tsabtace mai.
Haɗa panel yana dogara da gilashi, jan ƙarfe, da tin
Matakin panel yana ba da gudummawa sosai ga cutar da ɗan adam da amfani da ƙasa. Abubuwan da ake amfani da su sun haɗa da gilashin gaba, soda ash, mai mai nauyi da ake amfani da shi wajen samar da gilashi, jan ƙarfe, da tin. Ana amfani da tin a cikin ƙananan adadi, amma gudummawarsa ga alamomin amfani da ƙarfe har yanzu tana da kyau.
Sufuri ya fi rinjaye ta hanyar jigilar kaya, amma jigilar ruwa har yanzu tana da inganci
Don isar da kayayyaki daga China zuwa Turai, tasirin sufuri ya fi rinjaye ta hanyar jigilar ruwa a cikin ma'anar cikakkiya. Duk da haka, a kowace tonne-kilomita, jigilar ruwa ta fi tsabta fiye da sufuri na hanya. Sufuri yana ba da gudummawa musamman ga samar da ozone photochemical saboda man fetur da kayan aikin dabaru.
Fig.2 | Gudunmawar wuri mai zafi na wafer, cell, module, da matakan sufuri a cikin manyan nau'ikan tasiri guda shida.
Yankin Masana'antu da Hasashen Lokaci: Turai Ta Jagoranci, Amma 2035 Ta Kawo Canji
Takardar sai ta tsara TOPCon masana'antu a China, Indiya, Amurka, da Turai daga 2023 zuwa 2035. Tana la'akari da haɗin wutar lantarki na yanzu da kuma yanayin grid mai rage carbon a nan gaba. Sigogin fasaha kamar inganci, amfani da azurfa, amfani da polysilicon, da kaurin wafer suna inganta shekara zuwa shekara bisa ga zato na ITRPV.
Fig.3 | Manyan nau'ikan tasiri guda shida ta yankin masana'antu daga 2023 zuwa 2035. Layukan da ba su da ƙarfi suna wakiltar grid na yanzu; layukan da aka yanke suna wakiltar grid mai rage carbon a nan gaba.
Abubuwa da yawa sun fito fili.
| Bincike | Cikakkun Bayanai |
|---|---|
| Mafi girman GWP na 2023 | Indiya, kusan 0.95 kg CO₂eq/Wp |
| Mafi ƙarancin GWP na 2023 | Turai, kusan 0.40 kg CO₂eq/Wp |
| Inganta fasaha kawai | Matsakaicin raguwar GWP na kusan 0.10 kg CO₂eq/Wp nan da 2035 idan grid ba su canza ba |
| Sakamakon ƙurar iska ta China | China na iya nuna tasirin barbashi mafi girma fiye da Indiya saboda amfani da wutar lantarki na hakar ma'adinai da kuma fitar da barbashi a cikin kayan grid |
| Rikicin amfani da karafa | Grids masu karancin carbon na gaba na iya dan kara tasirin amfani da karafa saboda kayan aikin makamashi mai sabuntawa da kansu suna bukatar karin ma'adanai masu mahimmanci |
Sakamakon da ya fi sabawa hankali shine rikicin amfani da karafa. Tsarin wutar lantarki mai tsabta yana rage fitar da carbon, amma kayan aikin makamashi mai sabuntawa na iya bukatar karin karafa masu wuyar samu. A cikin EF v3.1, karafa masu wuyar samu kamar azurfa da abubuwan da ba kasafai ba suna da manyan abubuwan tantancewa. A karkashin zaton grid na gaba, Amurka ta zama mafi yawan amfani da karafa nan da 2035, yayin da Turai ta kasance mafi karanci saboda yanayin grid dinta yana da karancin rabon PV.
A wasu kalmomi, rage carbon yana inganta asusun yanayi amma yana iya dagula asusun ma'adanai idan tsarin ya dogara da kayan aikin makamashi mai tsabta masu yawan karafa.
Yaduwar Duniya zuwa 2035: Har zuwa 8.2 Gt CO₂eq Ana Iya Kaucewa
Ta yin amfani da hasashen jigilar kayayyaki na ITRPV, binciken ya ɗauka cewa PERC zai fita kasuwa nan da 2034 yayin da TOPCon ya zama magaji mafi rinjaye. Sannan ya ƙididdige tasirin masana'antu na duniya a ƙarƙashin yanayi daban-daban na yanki da grid.
Hoto.4 | Tasirin canjin yanayi da amfani da ƙarfe na tara don tura PERC da TOPCon a duniya. Yankunan da aka yi inuwa suna nuna bambanci tsakanin yanayin grid na yanzu da na gaba.
Sakamako masu mahimmanci sun haɗa da:
Jimlar hayakin masana'antu na PERC da TOPCon kafin 2035 na iya kaiwa iyakar sama da 13.8 Gt CO₂eq.
Inganta wurin masana'antu da rage wutar lantarki na iya rage wannan da har 8.2 Gt CO₂eq.
Wannan tanadin yayi daidai da kusan 13.9% na jimlar hayakin iskar gas na duniya a shekarar 2019.
Matsar da masana'antu daga China zuwa Turai a ƙarƙashin yanayin EIA na gaba na iya rage jimlar GWP da wani 49.5%.
Tasirin amfani da ƙarfe yana ƙaruwa yayin da grid ke rage carbon, tare da Turai ta yi mafi kyau kuma Amurka ta yi muni a ƙarƙashin hasashen gaba.
Amfanin makamashi yana da ƙarfi sosai. Ana sa ran samfuran da aka kera daga 2023 zuwa 2035 za su samar da kusan 94,602 TWh a cikin shekaru 12 na farko na rayuwar su na shekaru 30 da aka ɗauka. An kiyasta hayakin masana'antar su a kusan 2.26 Gt CO₂eq. Samar da wutar lantarki iri ɗaya tare da hanyoyin sadarwa na yanki na gaba zai fitar da hayaki tsakanin 27 da 67 Gt CO₂eq. Ko da a ƙarƙashin zato na taka tsantsan, hayakin da aka kaucewa ya wuce 25 Gt CO₂eq.
Fig.5 | Ƙarfin carbon na rayuwar Solar PV idan aka kwatanta da ƙarfin wutar lantarki na yanki na gaba.
Binciken Hankali: Haɗin Grid da Zaɓin Fasaha Suna Canza Sakamako
Binciken yana yin gwaje-gwaje na hankali da yawa don gano waɗanne levers suka fi muhimmanci.
Ƙarfin carbon na ƙaramin grid ya fi muhimmanci fiye da alamun ƙasa
Fig.6 | Matsakaicin GWP a cikin ƙananan grid a yankuna huɗu. Layukan baƙi suna nuna matsakaicin-grid da aka yi amfani da shi a babban samfurin.
China tana da mafi girman kewayon ƙananan grid, daga kusan 0.32 zuwa 0.58 kg CO₂eq/Wp. Mafi ƙarancin carbon grid na China yana kusa da misalin Turai. Wannan yana nufin cewa lakabin “an yi shi a China” ko “an yi shi a Turai” ya yi yawa don ƙididdigar carbon mai mahimmanci. Haɗin grid na ainihi, yarjejeniyar siyan wutar lantarki ta gida, da samun damar wutar lantarki mai sabuntawa kai tsaye na iya yanke shawarar ko tsarin ya cika ƙananan matakan carbon kamar EPEAT Climate+.
Coal shine mafi mahimmancin shigar da man fetur
Fig.7 | Tasirin canje-canje ±5% a cikin rabon man fetur guda ɗaya a cikin nau'ikan muhalli 16.
Canjin ±5% a cikin rabon coal yana da tasiri mafi ƙarfi a cikin nau'ikan tara, gami da +4.8% canji a cikin GWP. Makamashin nukiliya yana tasiri sosai ga alamun radiation ionizing amma yana da ƙananan tasiri a wasu wurare. Makamashin ruwa shine kawai tushen sabuntawa wanda ke rage dukkan nau'ikan 16 a cikin wannan gwajin hankali, yana nuna cewa masana'antar PV da ke amfani da wutar lantarki na iya zama mai fa'ida musamman daga hangen LCA.
Hanyoyin fasaha guda huɗu suna bayyana mataki na gaba na dorewar PV
Fig.8 | Hankalin haɓaka inganci, rage azurfa zuwa 5 mg/W, rage wutar lantarki na wafer, da rage silane.
| Lever | Tasirin PERC | Tasirin TOPCon | Babban Tasiri |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inganta inganci | +12.6% | +15.9% | Yana rage dukkan nau'ikan daidai gwargwado a kowace Wp |
| Azurfa an rage zuwa 5 mg/W | -66.5% yuwuwar da ke da alaƙa da azurfa | -78.0% yuwuwar da ke da alaƙa da azurfa | Yana rage tasirin amfani da ƙarfe da fiye da 41%; ƙaramin tasiri a kan sauran nau'ikan |
| Wutar lantarki ta wafer an rage ta da 26% | Ragewa mai ƙarfi | Ragewa mai ƙarfi | Yana rage GWP, ƙura, eutrophication na ruwa mai daɗi, da ƙarewar burbushin da fiye da 10% |
| Silane an rage ta da 14.4% | Ƙaramin raguwa | Ƙaramin raguwa | Fa'idar muhalli mai faɗi amma matsakaici |
Makasudin azurfa na 5 mg/W ya fito daga ma'aunin dorewa na multi-terawatt wanda Haegel et al. suka tattauna a Science 2023. Cimma shi zai rage tasirin amfani da karfe sosai, amma baya magance tasirin carbon, barbashi, ko makamashin burbushin halittu. Shi ya sa rage amfani da azurfa ba shine cikakken labarin muhalli ba.
Binciken rashin tabbas na Monte Carlo ya tabbatar da babban sakamako
Fig.9 | Sakamakon amincewar Monte Carlo a cikin nau'ikan tasirin muhalli 16.
Bayan gudanar da Monte Carlo sau 10,000, PERC ya nuna tasiri mafi girma fiye da TOPCon a fiye da kashi 70% na simulations don 11 daga cikin nau'ikan 16. Ga canjin yanayi, matakin amincewa shine 71.5%. Ga lalacewar ozone, ya kai 98.7%. Amfani da karfe yana tafiya ta wata hanya dabam tare da 95.8% amincewa, yana tabbatar da cewa TOPCon yana da yuwuwar cinye karin albarkatun karfe a karkashin zato na asali.
Abubuwan da suka shafi Masana'antu: Canjin TOPCon Yana da Kyau, Amma Ba Dorewa Ba Kai Tsaye
Sakamakon ya kai ga wasu sakamako masu amfani ga masana'antar kera hasken rana.
TOPCon maye gurbin PERC yana da kyau ga muhalli gaba daya, amma azurfa ta zama batun zagayowar rayuwa, ba kawai batun farashi ba. Don haka fasahohin rufin tagulla da Ni/Cu/Ag ba kawai zaɓuɓɓukan rage farashi ba ne; suna da mahimmanci don rage alamomin albarkatun ƙarfe.
Wutar lantarki ta wafer ita ce mafi girman matsalar yanayi. Rage polysilicon da jan crystal sune mahimman matakai da za a kula da su. Don bin ƙa'idodin sawun carbon, wurin masana'anta ya kamata a tantance shi a matakin ƙaramin grid, ba kawai ta ƙasa ba.
Wutar lantarki mai ƙarancin carbon na iya haifar da musayar ma'adinai. Grid mai rage carbon yana rage GWP, amma idan faɗaɗa grid ya dogara sosai kan tsarin sabunta makamashi mai yawan ƙarfe, alamomin amfani da ƙarfe na iya tashi.
Inganta aiki shine mafi tsabtataccen ma'aunin kowane rukuni. Ingantacciyar ingancin module yana rage yanki, abu, da buƙatar makamashi a kowace Wp a duk sarkar darajar. TOPCon yana da ƙarfin inganci fiye da PERC, amma dole ne a kiyaye wannan fa'ida ta hanyar rage amfani da azurfa.
Ra'ayin Ooitech
A matsayin mai samar da kayan aiki da ke aiki tare da layin samar da hasken rana, muna ganin canjin TOPCon a matsayin tunatarwa cewa ingantaccen tantanin halitta kadai bai isa ya ayyana hanyar samar da kayayyaki mai dorewa ba. Mafi mahimmancin yanke shawara a matakin masana'anta zai kasance shirye-shiryen rage amfani da azurfa, samar da wutar lantarki ta gefen wafer, da kuma kula da tsari mai tsayayye wanda zai iya mayar da ingantaccen aiki zuwa tanadin kayan aiki na ainihi a kowace Wp. Ga layukan samar da hasken rana na gaba, musamman waɗanda aka tsara don TOPCon ko samfuran n-type na gaba, aikin muhalli zai dogara da yadda ake haɗa kayan aiki, kayan aiki, da dabarun makamashi na masana'anta tare.
