Gabatarwa: Me Yasa Wannan Nazarin Yake Da Muhimmanci Yanzu

Wannan labarin ya dogara ne akan takardar Nature Communications da aka buga a kan layi a watan Fabrairu 2026, “Maximising environmental savings from silicon photovoltaics manufacturing to 2035” na Bethany L. Willis et al. Binciken ya ba da ɗaya daga cikin cikakkun kwatancen zagayowar rayuwa tsakanin PERC da TOPCon masana'antar photovoltaic, yana fadada bincike daga bayanan samarwa na yau zuwa fasahar 2035 da yanayin grid.

A ƙarshen 2023, ƙarfin hasken rana na PV da aka shigar a duniya ya riga ya wuce 1 TWp. A cikin yanayin rage gurɓataccen iska na dogon lokaci, wannan lambar na iya kaiwa kusan 80 TWp nan da 2050. Wannan haɓaka yana da mahimmanci don canjin makamashi, amma kuma yana haifar da nauyin masana'antu wanda galibi ba a ƙididdige shi ba. Kimomin da suka gabata sun nuna cewa masana'antar PV da kanta na iya cinye har 11% na ragowar kasafin carbon na duniya a ƙarƙashin hanyar 1.5 °C.

Lokaci yana da mahimmanci saboda masana'antar siliki mai haske ta yau da kullun tana motsawa da sauri daga PERC zuwa TOPCon. TOPCon yana ba da inganci mafi girma, amma tsarin tantanin sa, abubuwan da ake amfani da su, matakan kariya, da kuma hanyoyin haɗa ƙarfe sun bambanta sosai da PERC. Babbar tambaya mai sauƙi ce amma mai wuya: shin inganci mafi girma yana rage tasirin muhalli, ko kuma ƙarin kayan aiki da rikitarwar tsari suna rage fa'idar?

Binciken yana amfani da kima na rayuwa daga tushe zuwa ƙofa, wanda ya ƙunshi sarkar daga hako ma'adinin quartz zuwa wafer, tantanin halitta, masana'anta na module, da jigilar kaya zuwa Tsakiyar Turai. Ƙungiyar aiki ita ce 1 Wp, kuma kimar tasirin ta bi hanyar EU EF v3.1 a cikin nau'ikan 16. Zato na ci gaban fasaha ya dogara ne akan ITRPV 2024 roadmap, yayin da rage amfani da wutar lantarki ke bin tsarin EIA 2023 low zero-carbon technology cost. Yankunan masana'anta sun haɗa da China, Indiya, Amurka, da Turai, tare da amfani da binciken Monte Carlo don gwada rashin tabbas.

PERC vs TOPCon: Mafi Kyau a cikin Rukunan 15, Mafi Muni a cikin ɗaya

A ƙarƙashin tsarin 2023 na masana'anta na China da isar da kaya zuwa Tsakiyar Turai, TOPCon yana aiki mafi kyau fiye da PERC a 15 daga cikin nau'ikan tasirin muhalli 16 a kan tushen kowace Wp. Iyakar nau'in da TOPCon ta fi muni shine amfani da ma'adanai da albarkatun ma'adinai.

Hoto 1 | Kwatancen daidaitacce na manyan nau'ikan tasiri shida tsakanin PERC da TOPCon, tare da bambance-bambancen kashi.

Ƙaruwar +15.2% a tasirin albarkatun ma'adinai yana da alaƙa da azurfa. A cikin sel PERC, metallization na gefen baya yana amfani da haɗin azurfa da aluminum. A cikin sel TOPCon, duka metallization na gaba da baya sun fi dogaro da manna azurfa. Sakamakon haka, ko da yake TOPCon tana samar da ƙarin wutar lantarki a kowace yanki, buƙatun azurfa ta kowace Wp ya kasance babban damuwa na muhalli.

Wannan shine matakin farko na rikicewar: TOPCon ya fi tsabta a yawancin nau'ikan zagayowar rayuwa, amma sawun ƙarfe na iya zama mafi muni saboda yawan amfani da azurfa.

Binciken Wuri Mai Zafi: Wutar Lantarki Ta Fi Karfin Carbon, Azurfa Ta Fi Karfin Amfani da Karfe

Binciken ya raba kera samfurin TOPCon zuwa manyan matakai hudu: samar da wafer, samar da cell, hada module, da jigilar kaya zuwa Tsakiyar Turai. Sakamakon ya nuna cewa nau'ikan muhalli daban-daban suna sarrafa su ta hanyar wurare masu zafi daban-daban.

Samar da wafer shine mafi girman wurin zafi na carbon

Matakin wafer ya mamaye nau'ikan tasiri 12 daga cikin 16. A cikin manyan nau'ikan shida da takardar ta haskaka, amfani da wutar lantarki da ke da alaka da wafer yana ba da gudummawa sosai ga:

Fiye da kashi 85% na bukatar wutar lantarki na wafer ya fito ne daga rage polysilicon da jan hankalin crystal na Czochralski. A zahiri, sawun carbon na module na hasken rana yana da karfi ta hanyar hadewar wutar lantarki da ake amfani da shi a sama a cikin samar da polysilicon da ingot.

Samar da cell shine wurin zafi na amfani da karfe

Matakin tantanin halitta shine kawai matakin da amfani da albarkatun ƙarfe ya zama babba. Yin amfani da farar azurfa yana lissafin 53.0% na jimlar amfani da ƙarfe na panel da 98.3% na amfani da ƙarfe a cikin matakin tantanin halitta. Sauran wuraren zafi na matakin tantanin halitta sun haɗa da silane don ajiyar poly-Si da PECVD, wutar lantarki na annealing, da hayakin NMVOC daga tsaftacewa da ƙarfi.

Haɗa panel yana tafiyar da gilashi, jan ƙarfe, da tin

Matakin panel yana ba da gudummawa sosai ga guba ga mutum da amfani da ƙasa. Abubuwan da ake amfani da su sun haɗa da gilashin gaba, soda ash, mai mai nauyi da ake amfani da shi wajen samar da gilashi, jan ƙarfe, da tin. Ana amfani da tin a cikin ƙananan adadi, amma gudummawarsa ga alamomin amfani da ƙarfe har yanzu tana da kyau.

Sufuri yana mamaye ta jigilar kaya, amma jigilar ruwa har yanzu tana da inganci

Don isar da kayayyaki daga China zuwa Turai, tasirin sufuri yana mamaye ta jigilar ruwa a cikin ma'anar cikakkiya. Duk da haka, a kowace tonne-kilomita, jigilar ruwa ta kasance mafi tsabta fiye da jigilar hanya. Sufuri yana ba da gudummawa musamman ga samar da ozone photochemical saboda man fetur da kayan aikin dabaru.

Fig.2 | Gudunmawar hotspot na wafer, cell, module, da matakan sufuri a cikin manyan nau'ikan tasiri guda shida.

Yankin Masana'antu da Hasashen Lokaci: Turai Ta Jagoranci, Amma 2035 Ta Kawo Canji

Takardar sai ta yi samfurin masana'antar TOPCon a China, Indiya, Amurka, da Turai daga 2023 zuwa 2035. Tana la'akari da haɗin wutar lantarki na yanzu da kuma yanayin grid na gaba mai rage carbon. Sigogin fasaha kamar inganci, amfani da azurfa, amfani da polysilicon, da kaurin wafer suna inganta shekara zuwa shekara bisa ga zato na ITRPV.

Fig.3 | Manyan nau'ikan tasiri guda shida ta yankin masana'antu daga 2023 zuwa 2035. Layukan da ba su karye ba suna wakiltar grid na yanzu; layukan da suka karye suna wakiltar grid na gaba mai rage carbon.

Abubuwa da yawa sun fito fili.

Sakamakon da ya fi sabawa hankali shine rikicin amfani da karafa. Tsarin wutar lantarki mai tsabta yana rage fitar da carbon, amma kayan aikin makamashi mai sabuntawa na iya bukatar karin karafa masu wuyar samu. A cikin EF v3.1, karafa masu wuyar samu kamar azurfa da abubuwan da ba kasafai suke ba suna da manyan abubuwan tantancewa. A karkashin hasashen grid na gaba, Amurka ta zama mafi yawan amfani da karafa nan da 2035, yayin da Turai ta kasance mafi kankanta saboda yanayin grid dinta yana da karancin rabon PV.

A wasu kalmomi, rage carbon yana inganta asusun yanayi amma yana iya dagula asusun ma'adanai idan tsarin ya dogara da kayan aikin makamashi mai tsabta mai yawan karafa.

Yaduwar Duniya zuwa 2035: Har zuwa 8.2 Gt CO₂eq Ana Iya Kaucewa

Ta yin amfani da hasashen jigilar ITRPV, binciken ya ɗauka cewa PERC zai fita daga kasuwa nan da 2034 yayin da TOPCon ya zama magaji mai rinjaye. Sa'an nan kuma ya ƙididdige tasirin masana'antu na duniya a ƙarƙashin yanayin masana'antu da grid daban-daban.

Hoto.4 | Tasirin canjin yanayi da amfani da ƙarfe na tara don tura PERC da TOPCon na duniya. Yankunan da aka yi inuwa suna nuna bambanci tsakanin yanayin grid na yanzu da na gaba.

Sakamako masu mahimmanci sun haɗa da:

• Haɗaɗɗen hayakin masana'antu na PERC da TOPCon kafin 2035 na iya kaiwa iyakar sama da 13.8 Gt CO₂eq.

• Inganta wurin masana'antu da rage wutar lantarki na iya rage wannan da har 8.2 Gt CO₂eq.

• Wannan tanadin yayi daidai da kusan 13.9% na jimlar hayakin iskar gas na duniya a 2019.

• Matsar da masana'antu daga China zuwa Turai a ƙarƙashin yanayin EIA na gaba na iya rage GWP na tara da wani 49.5%.

• Tasirin amfani da ƙarfe yana ƙaruwa yayin da grid ke rage carbon, tare da Turai tana yin mafi kyau kuma Amurka tana mafi muni a ƙarƙashin zato na gaba.

Amfanin makamashi yana da ƙarfi sosai. Ana sa ran samfuran da aka kera daga 2023 zuwa 2035 za su samar da kusan 94,602 TWh a cikin shekaru 12 na farkon rayuwarsu ta shekaru 30. An kiyasta hayakin masana'antar su a kusan 2.26 Gt CO₂eq. Samar da wutar lantarki iri ɗaya ta hanyar grid na yanki na gaba zai fitar da hayaki tsakanin 27 da 67 Gt CO₂eq. Ko da a ƙarƙashin zato masu ra'ayin mazan jiya, hayakin da aka kaucewa ya wuce 25 Gt CO₂eq.

Fig.5 | Ƙarfin carbon na rayuwar Solar PV idan aka kwatanta da ƙarfin wutar lantarki na grid na yanki na gaba.

Binciken Hankali: Haɗin Grid da Zaɓin Fasaha Suna Canza Sakamako

Binciken yana yin gwaje-gwaje na hankali da yawa don gano waɗanne levers ne suka fi muhimmanci.

Ƙarfin carbon na sub-grid yana da mahimmanci fiye da alamun ƙasa

Fig.6 | Matsakaicin GWP a cikin sub-grids a yankuna huɗu. Layukan baƙi suna nuna matsakaicin-grid da aka yi amfani da shi a babban samfurin.

China tana da mafi girman kewayon sub-grid, daga kusan 0.32 zuwa 0.58 kg CO₂eq/Wp. Mafi ƙarancin carbon grid na China yana kusa da misalin Turai. Wannan yana nufin cewa lakabin “made in China” ko “made in Europe” ya yi yawa don ƙididdigar carbon mai mahimmanci. Haɗin grid na ainihi, yarjejeniyar siyan wutar lantarki ta gida, da samun damar wutar lantarki mai sabuntawa kai tsaye na iya yanke shawarar ko tsarin ya cika ƙananan matakan carbon kamar EPEAT Climate+.

Coal shine mafi mahimmancin shigar da man fetur

Fig.7 | Tasirin ±5% canje-canje a cikin rabon man fetur guda ɗaya a cikin nau'ikan muhalli 16.

Canjin ±5% a cikin rabon coal yana da tasiri mafi ƙarfi a cikin nau'ikan tara, gami da +4.8% canji a cikin GWP. Makamashin nukiliya yana tasiri sosai ga alamun radiation ionizing amma yana da ƙananan tasiri a wasu wurare. Makamashin ruwa shine kawai tushen sabuntawa wanda ke rage dukkan nau'ikan 16 a cikin wannan gwajin hankali, yana nuna cewa masana'antar PV da ke amfani da wutar lantarki na iya zama mai fa'ida musamman daga hangen LCA.

Hanyoyin fasaha guda huɗu suna bayyana mataki na gaba na dorewar PV

Fig.8 | Hankalin haɓaka inganci, rage azurfa zuwa 5 mg/W, rage wutar lantarki na wafer, da rage silane.

Makasudin azurfa na 5 mg/W ya fito daga ma'aunin dorewa na multi-terawatt wanda Haegel et al. suka tattauna a Science 2023. Cimma shi zai rage tasirin amfani da karfe sosai, amma baya magance tasirin carbon, particulate, ko makamashin burbushin halittu. Shi ya sa rage amfani da azurfa ba shine cikakken labarin muhalli ba.

Binciken rashin tabbas na Monte Carlo ya tabbatar da babban sakamako

Fig.9 | Sakamakon amincewar Monte Carlo a cikin nau'ikan tasirin muhalli 16.

Bayan gudanar da Monte Carlo sau 10,000, PERC yana nuna tasiri mafi girma fiye da TOPCon a fiye da 70% na simulations don 11 daga cikin nau'ikan 16. Ga canjin yanayi, matakin amincewa shine 71.5%. Ga lalacewar ozone, ya kai 98.7%. Amfani da karfe yana tafiya ta wata hanya dabam tare da 95.8% amincewa, yana tabbatar da cewa TOPCon yana da yuwuwar cinye karin albarkatun karfe a karkashin zato na asali.

Abubuwan da suka shafi Masana'antu: Canjin TOPCon Yana da Kyau, Amma Ba Dorewa Kai Tsaye Ba

Sakamakon ya kai ga wasu sakamako masu amfani ga masana'antar kera hasken rana.

• TOPCon maye gurbin PERC yana da kyau ga muhalli gaba daya, amma azurfa ta zama batun zagayowar rayuwa, ba kawai batun farashi ba. Don haka fasahohin rufin tagulla da Ni/Cu/Ag ba kawai zaɓuɓɓukan rage farashi ba ne; suna da mahimmanci don rage alamomin albarkatun ƙarfe.

• Wutar lantarki ta wafer ita ce mafi girman matsalar yanayi. Rage polysilicon da jan crystal sune mahimman matakai da za a kula da su. Don bin ka'idojin sawun carbon, wurin masana'anta ya kamata a tantance shi a matakin ƙaramin grid, ba kawai ta ƙasa ba.

• Wutar lantarki mai ƙarancin carbon na iya haifar da musayar ma'adinai. Grid da aka rage carbon yana rage GWP, amma idan faɗaɗa grid ya dogara sosai kan tsarin sabunta makamashi mai yawan ƙarfe, alamomin amfani da ƙarfe na iya tashi.

• Inganta inganci shine mafi tsabta mai ɗaukar nauyi a kowane rukuni. Ingantacciyar ingancin module yana rage yanki, abu, da buƙatar makamashi a kowace Wp a duk sarkar darajar. TOPCon yana da ƙarfin inganci fiye da PERC, amma dole ne a kiyaye wannan fa'ida ta hanyar rage amfani da azurfa.

Ra'ayin Ooitech

A matsayin mai samar da kayan aiki da ke aiki tare da layin samar da hasken rana, muna ganin canjin TOPCon a matsayin tunatarwa cewa ingantaccen tantanin halitta kadai bai isa ba don ayyana hanyar samar da kayayyaki mai dorewa. Mafi mahimmancin yanke shawara a matakin masana'anta zai kasance shirye-shiryen rage amfani da azurfa, samar da wutar lantarki ta gefen wafer, da kuma kula da tsari mai tsayayye wanda zai iya mayar da ingantaccen aiki zuwa tanadin kayan aiki na ainihi a kowace Wp. Ga layukan samar da kayayyaki na gaba, musamman waɗanda aka tsara don TOPCon ko samfuran n-type na gaba, aikin muhalli zai dogara da yadda kayan aiki, kayan aiki, da dabarun makamashin masana'anta aka haɗa su tare.